According to specialist data intelligence provider and aviation consultancy, IBA Group, orders from this year’s Paris Air Show could be as low as 50% of 2018’s figures.
Estimating that both firm and MoU orders combined could be as low as 450, the consultancy predicts that the potential high points of the air show could be Airbus’ possible launch of the A321XLR and Boeing’s efforts to get the ball rolling on the 737 MAX’s re-entry programme.
Other predictions from IBA include Boeing not launching the NMA, Mitsubishi launching the MRJ70 to optimise for scope clause compliance, DHC moves to purchase the Q400 programme, and finally, Sukhoi dispelling safety concerns and addressing aftermarket support issues.
Commenting on the predictions, Dr Stuart Hatcher, COO, MD-Aviation Services for IBA, said: “Already, year to date, we have an unprecedented number of aircraft returning from failed operators as traffic growth slows, yields continue to soften from a historical low point, fuel costs increase across the medium term and forex is far from ideal. Aside from these economic points, 737 MAX grounding and the China-US Trade problems add to the woes.
“Despite this doom and gloom, we must stress that the industry remains resilient as the numbers of consumers that can afford to travel continue to grow and all the facets required to support that (such as leasing) will grow and evolve with it. Potential risks are high, and with that comes a greater need to be diligent.”